Base Rate: The Base Rate For Sex Offenders Is 13.4 Percent

Researchers Hanson and Bussiere in an analysis of 61 studies including 23,393 individuals showed a reoffense rate of 13.4 percent (13.4%). Hanson, R. K., and Bussiere, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. “Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology,” Vol. 66, No. 2, 348-362. The meta-analysis studied mostly adult offenders. The meta-analysis found “the strongest predictors of sexual offense recidivism were measures of sexual deviancy.” Hanson and Bussiere, 1998 at p 351. Criminal lifestyle variables were a modest predictor of sexual offense recidivism. Id. Thus, deviancy and antisocial behavior appear to be the factors with the strongest corollary to recidivism.

Hanson and Bussiere 1998 also noted at p 351 that:

“Many of the sexual criminal history variables showed small to moderate correlations with recidivism. The risk of sexual recidivism was increased for those who has prior sexual offenses (.19), had victimized strangers, had an extrafamilial victim, began offending sexually at an early age, had selected male victims, or had engaged in diverse sexual crimes. Neither the degree of sexual contact, or force used, nor injury to victims were significant predictors of sexual offense recidivism.”

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